I hear a lot of agents bellyaching about the real estate business in Sacramento. They ask where all the home buyers have gone and wonder if they should quit selling real estate. Well, with an attitude like that, it sounds to me like they have already quit selling real estate, they just haven't made a formal announcement yet.
There will always be home buyers and there will always be home sellers in Sacramento. The real estate business doesn't come to screeching halt just because the economy tanks or inventory rises. It just changes shape. More than half of the sales in Sacramento are foreclosures and short sales, with short sales taking the lead.
Because I list and sell a lot of short sales in Sacramento, I often prepare a comparative market analysis for a wide spectrum of neighborhoods. As a Sacramento short sale agent, I sell from Lincoln to Cameron Park to Galt. I put a cap on how far I am willing to drive this week when a caller asked if I would list a short sale in Rescue. I thought to myself, hmm, that's pretty darn close to Cameron Park -- nope, not gonna do it because before I know it I could be driving to Lake Tahoe.
But my point is I study snapshots of various real estate markets from an analytical viewpoint that other agents might not see in a such a wide scope. I am picking up a repetitive theme. List prices and pending prices are less than the sold comparable sales. We had a slide in Sacramento in early 2008, and I predict there's another dip coming up. It won't compare to the big drop between 2005 and 2007, but I don't see appreciation lurking anywhere within my sight line.
The market is what it is and no single agent is going to change it. I didn't make it. All I can do is adapt how I do business to make sure that I stay in business. By the time a recovery arrives, for most of us, it will be a huge relief; even if it slides in sideways. We have two eyes, we can see it coming. But it ain't here yet. Not by a long shot. Recovery is not around the corner. There's just no way to sugar coat what's going on, nor do I even want to.
I am including several charts here that show you sales are down 33% from last year and inventory is up by almost 45% over last year. We have more homes coming on the market and there are fewer buyers. This is now a buyer's market. Throw in interest rates at 4.5%, and you've got an excellent time to buy, which means buyers are less likely to do it. Don't get me started on why but buyers tend to buy in seller's markets.
If you want to buy or sell a home in Sacramento, give me a ring. I'll still be here.
Data supplied by Trendgraphix.
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Certified HAFA Specialist
My Sacramento Real Estate Listings
Elizabeth Weintraub is an author, home buying columnist for The New York Times-owned About.com, a Land Park resident, and a Land Park real estate agent who specializes in older, classic homes in Land Park, Curtis Park, Midtown and East Sacramento. Weintraub is also a Sacramento Short Sale agent who lists and successfully sells short sales throughout the four-county Sacramento area. Call Elizabeth Weintraub at 916.233.6759. Put 35 years of real estate experience to work for you. Broker-Associate at Lyon Real Estate. DRE License # 00697006.
The Short Sale Savior, by Elizabeth Weintraub, available at Amazon.com.
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The views expressed herein are Weintraub's personal views and do not reflect the views of Lyon Real Estate.
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