A reporter called yesterday morning to ask me about the rising real estate prices and market recovery in Sacramento. After all, our Trendgraphix reports show a 42% increase in pending sales for June. That's the message delivered by Lyon Real Estate. However, inventory is up about 8% and sales are down by 2%. The average per-square-foot price also dropped by 2% to $125. The reporter asked me to comment on our market stabilization in Sacramento.
Much as I would like to paint a rosy picture of the real estate market in Sacramento, I have to call it the way I see it. And I don't see a big recovery. In fact, I see prices falling. I haven't heard much about this elsewhere but it's going on, I'm telling you. Just wait a few months. You'll see.
In the first half of the year, I could slap a price on my short sale listings close to the prices of comparable sales and expect to get it. MLS reports that more than half of the listings in Sacramento right now are short sales. However, when I pull up the listings and sales for any given area with a lot of short sales, what I see are the active listings, active short contingent listings and pending listings all priced LESS than the comparable sales. What does that tell you?
It tells me that I'm going to have a heck of a time arguing with agents who are doing BPOs for the banks on my Sacramento short sales. Because those agents will consider the comparable sales, which appear to have very little bearing on market movement. I don't like it when the comp prices are higher than the activity in the marketplace, in part because people can't think upside down. But also because it means that prices are falling. You just don't see it yet.
As a Sacramento short sale agent, it doesn't really matter to me personally which way the market moves because, like Eddie Murphy in Trading Places, there is always movement. I don't control it. I can't control it. I just go with the flow and sell those listings.
It's a squirrelly market, and that's what I told the reporter. I said, "Among those who qualified for the home buyer tax credit, anybody with half a brain already bought before June." She probably thought that I said the market was full of squirrels, I guess, which wasn't really what I meant. It's that the buyers who didn't qualify for or missed the tax credit now want to compensate for that loss by slamming those list prices. They want some assurance against future market fluctuation. And who can blame them, really?
Photo: Trendgraphix
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Elizabeth Weintraub is an author, home buying columnist for The New York Times-owned About.com, a Land Park resident, and a Land Park real estate agent who specializes in older, classic homes in Land Park, Curtis Park, Midtown and East Sacramento. Weintraub is also a Sacramento Short Sale agent who lists and successfully sells short sales throughout Sacramento. Call Elizabeth Weintraub at 916.233.6759. Put 35 years of real estate experience to work for you. DRE License # 00697006.
The Short Sale Savior, by Elizabeth Weintraub, available through bookstores everywhere and at Amazon.com.
Photo: Unless otherwise noted in this blog, the photo is copyrighted by Big Stock Photo and used with permission.
The views expressed herein are Weintraub's personal views and do not reflect the views of Lyon Real Estate.










